中文宏观经济学教科书在线阅读.
Glossary
Here you will find the description of some words and phrases that pertain to the concepts in this course, and also words and phrases used in the videos and readings. If you want to add another word or expression that we missed, please suggest it in the forums.
A
accommodating policy. A strategy by macroeconomic policymakers to keep output stable even if it causes large changes in the inflation rate under supply shocks.
automatic stabilizers. Macroeconomic policies that dampen fluctuations without active intervention by policymakers (e.g., unemployment insurance and income taxes at constant or progressive rates).
active stabilization policies. Macroeconomic strategy enacted by governments and central banks to keep the inflation rate, unemployment rate, and GDP growth rate stable.
B
balanced budget laws. Laws requiring the government to limit its total expenditure to its revenues within a given period.
C
credit constraint. Market imperfection which makes access to credit hard for individuals/firms in an economy.
crowding out effect. An economic theory stipulating that rises in public sector spending drive down or even eliminate private sector spending.
countercyclical. Moving in the opposite direction of the overall economic cycle: rising when the economy is weakening, and falling when the economy is strengthening.
D
deflation. A decline in the price level.
demand shocks. Non-trivial shifts in the economy’s underlying factors that increase or decrease the aggregate demand for goods and services.
diminishing returns. Declining in marginal returns to a factor of production (e.g., physical capital) as the availability of that factor increases.
disinflation. A slowing in the rate of price inflation.
disposable incomes. Aggregate real income minus net taxes (taxes net of transfers).
E
equilibrium aggregate income. The level of income that equals the total expenditure by all agents in the economy given their conditions.
extinguishing policy. A strategy by macroeconomic policymakers to keep inflation stable even if it raises unemployment in the short run when there is an adverse supply shock.
F
fiscal multiplier effect. The increase in an economy’s aggregate income for every dollar of increase in government expenditure.
fiscal policy. The manner in which the government sets taxes, transfers, and public expenditure.
G
golden rule: In fiscal policy, requiring the government to limit its current expenditure to its current revenues within a given period and allowing it to borrow for capital expenditure that would generate future revenues and, thus, enable the government to pay back its debt.
governance. Processes of collective decision-making and policy implementation undertaken by a government or other organizations.
H
I
inflation. The rate of change in the aggregate prices level.
inflation gap (π – π): The distance of inflation, π, from the target level of inflation, π.
inside lag. The time it takes to recognize that a shock has occurred and to implement appropriate policy responses.
institutions. The rules and norms that assign roles to individuals in the society and structure their interactions in political, legal, and social arenas.
IS curve. The curve that shows the equilibrium levels of income and expenditure in the market for goods and services given the nominal interest rate. The IS curve tells shows at what level of real income, aggregate preferred expenditure equals aggregate income for each given rate of interest.
J
K
L
law of one price. A hypothesis that asserts that if the market for a product is competitive and there are no transportation costs or trade barriers between two countries, the ratio of the prices of the product in the two countries should be equal to the exchange rate of their currencies.
liquidity trap. The situation in which prevailing interest rates are close to zero and money demand is highly elastic (i.e., tiny reductions in money demand lead to large increases in money holding), making monetary policy ineffective.
LM curve. The combinations of real income and nominal interest rate for which the demand for money (or desired liquidity) equals money supply given the real income.
M
Minsky moment. A sudden major collapse of asset values as a result of widespread excessive risk-taking at the micro level based on the perception that stabilization policies will prevent systemic risks.
monetary policy. The manner in which the central bank manages an economy’s money supply.
N
non-tradables. Components of goods and services produced and consumed domestically that are too costly to import or export.
O
output gap (y – ȳ): The deviation of (log) of aggregate output, y, from (log) production capacity, ȳ.
outside lags. The time it takes for policy responses to take effect in the economy.
over-heated economy. A condition where an economy is continually stimulated to produce beyond its production capacity.
P
policy delegation. Creating a policy-making body that can act independently of day-to-day political considerations (e.g., for monetary policy, creating an independent central bank, and for fiscal policy, establishing a national debt board).
political business cycles. Cycles in macroeconomic variables – output, unemployment, inflation – induced by the electoral cycles or other cycles in political conditions.
“preferred” aggregate expenditure. Thetotal expenditure that participants in an economy would like to have given their economic circumstances, including their incomes and the prices that they face.
“preferred” net exports. The amount of net exports given the economy circumstances, particularly the real exchange rate, domestic and foreign real incomes.
“preferred” investment. The amount that investors would like to spend for creating production capacity given their economic conditions, particularly their expectations about future profitability and the real interest rate.
“preferred” private consumption. The amount that the households prefer to spend given their economic circumstances, including their wealth, disposable incomes, and the prices that they face.
price “stickiness”. Momentum in the price level that makes it to stick to its trend and limits its movements in the short run.
pro-cyclical.Moving in the direction of the overall economic cycle: rising when the economy is strengthening, and falling when the economy is weakening.
production capacity. Production capacity of an economy is the maximum output that it can produce on a sustained basis.
purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. The hypothesis that the real exchange rate equals 1, which means that a dollar is able to buy the same basket of goods and services in all countries after it has been converted into the local currency.
Q
R
relative purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. The hypothesis that the real exchange rate equals a fixed number, which means that the ratio of the baskets of goods and services that a dollar is able to buy in two countries after it has been converted into the local currency is constant.
rule-based policy-making. Making macroeconomic policy subject to fixed rules, such as a constant growth rate of money supply or a maximum allowable budget deficit (e.g., balance budget laws).
S
supply shocks. Non-trivial shifts in the economy’s production capacity due to changes in its underlying factors.
T
tax smoothing. Keeping tax rates steady over time as a way of minimizing the deadweight losses of taxation in the face of changing economic conditions and public expenditure needs.
Taylor rule. Moving interest rates in proportion to the inflation and output gaps.
Technology. The knowledge about ways of combining resources to produce the outputs that satisfy the needs of the population. Better technology allows the economy to produce more with the same resources and, therefore, enhances production capacity.
time inconsistency problem. A situation in which a decision-maker’s preferences change over time in such a way that a preference can become inconsistent at another point in time and the expectations among the stakeholders that the decisions will change in the future prevent the decision-maker from implementing optimal policies.
tradables. Components of goods and services produced and consumed domestically that are easily imported or exported.
U
V
W
Worldwide Governance Indicators. Six major dimensions of governance, which rank institutional characteristics across countries and over time.
X
Y
Z
一、利率平价：利率是汇率的补偿
从利率平价角度来看，利率是对未来汇率的补偿。高利率国家往往对应着新兴国家和不稳定的政治经济环境，需要较高的主权风险溢价，未来汇率贬值需要正利差来进行补偿；反之低利率国家往往对应发达国家和稳定经济环境，未来汇率升值需要负利差进行抵补。中国相对于美国的国际主权风险更高，中国主权CDS约120点，美国主权CDS约30点，中国利率高于美国，合理的中美利差有利于维持人民币即期汇率稳定。
利差变动（高利率国家-低利率国家）又分为主动和被动：
第一，高利率国家主动提高利差，假定其他条件不变，汇率升值。利率向汇率的传导途径可是：（1）利差扩大，国际资本流入高利率国家，汇率升值；（2）利率提高，信贷收缩，物价下行，抑制进口，刺激出口，汇率升值；（3）但长期来看，过高利率会抑制国内投资和消费，抑制经济增长，汇率贬值。
第二，高利率国家主权信用风险上升，利差被动扩大，汇率贬值。一般都是由于高利率国家经济政治风险导致信用风险恶化，国内收益率上升，抑制国内投资和货币需求，汇率贬值。如英国退欧，英镑大幅贬值；希腊债务和意大利银行业危机都导致意大利和希腊国债利率大幅飙升，利差被动扩大，欧元兑美元贬值。
图1：美英利差与英镑汇率走势（数据来源：Bloomberg）
二、中美境内利差与汇率走势
中国非完全资本管制制度，中美利差对于银行间结售汇顺逆差、QDII资本流和企业居民结售汇影响较大，一定程度也影响汇率市场预期。
2015年6月~12月，美联储加息预期浓烈，美国10年期国债收益率大幅上行（30bps），中国10年期国债收益率则下行至2.9%阶段新低，中美利差缩窄至60BPS，人民币贬值压力凸显。
2016年上半年，美国货币政策偏鸽派，10年国债收益率大幅走低，中美利差走扩至135bps，2016年4~6月，人民币小幅升值。
2016年7月~11月，美国10年国债收益率大幅上升70bps至2.6%，中美利差大幅缩窄50bps，10和11月份外汇储备分别减少457亿和690亿美元，仅次于2016年年初人民币汇率大幅贬值。
图2：中美主权债券收益率走势趋同（数据来源：Bloomberg）
图3：中美利差与人民币即期汇率走势（数据来源：Bloomberg）
三、 境内和境外人民币市场利率迥异
CNH是重要的人民币离岸市场，对于人民币国际化非常重要，USD/CNH走势反过来影响境内人民币汇率市场。当前境内外市场在流动性和利率、掉期市场上相差甚大，境内外中美利差亦大不相同。
第一，境内外人民币收益率在不同的国际汇率环境下表现并不一致，本币面临贬值时，一般境外利率高于境内利率，反之则境外利率低于境内。近5年来，人民币境内外收益率经历大致三个阶段：（1）境外收益率低于境内。2014年以前，人民币面临较大升值压力，央行管制热钱大量流入境内，防止M2增长过快。海外投资者愿意牺牲部分利率补偿而持有CNH，且海外人民币资产匮乏，因此收益率偏低；（2）境内外利率相当，2013年~2014年，国内经济加速下滑，人民币从升值转向贬值；（3）境外利率高于境内。2015年“8.11汇改”之后，人民币趋贬，央行收紧CNH流动性，提高CNH利率来抑制贬值预期。